What will the next winter look like in Tatarstan — RealnoeVremya.com
“We expect January to be within the normal weather range, around -12 degrees. In February, everything is quite simple”
Specialists who study the climate continue to differ in their views. Some are confident about global warming, others say the planet is approaching a new ice age. Of course, it’s very interesting what awaits the Earth in 50-100 years, but we would also like to know what winter will look like. These questions, both long-term and short-term, became the subject of a press conference devoted to the cataclysms of autumn and the coming winter with the head of the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Environment from Kazan Federal University, Professor Yury Perevedentsev and Docent Timur of the department. Aukhadeev.
The temperature is rising in Tatarstan faster than in Russia on average
Proponents of global warming are convinced of the real impact of the human factor on the climate. Indeed, measurements of average temperature on the planet show its constant rise. If the influence of man is excluded, it is difficult to name the reason for this phenomenon. The rapid growth of greenhouse gases exists, and this growth is ensured by human activity. Opponents of global warming point to the lack of clear evidence of the impact of carbon dioxide and methane on the greenhouse effect and the simple fact that a major volcanic eruption can outweigh any negative industrial impacts on emissions.
Moreover, we have not yet studied nature’s ability to self-regenerate well. So, some world-renowned and fairly knowledgeable scientists believe that the idea of global warming is just a consequence of industrial policy and the self-centeredness of mankind who believed it played a key role. By the way, the scientists who promote the theory of global warming are no less competent than their opponents. Back to the press conference.
“This year, representatives from over 200 nations gathered in Glasgow, Scotland, for 12 days when global climate change emerged as the top issues. The conversation was quite serious, but as far as I know, no specific decision was taken,” Professor Perevedentsev said.
He also reminded the audience of the Kyoto Protocol, an international climate agreement adopted at the turn of the century. Russia actively participated in the discussion of the protocol.
“Almost two decades have passed since then, but we see that the temperature continues to rise and it has not yet been possible to stop this process. Modern science has drawn a red line. Today, the average annual temperature is 15%, and two degrees, as it was considered, is the maximum we can afford, now the bar has been reduced to 1.5,” Perevedentsev noted.
Then the speaker answered a question about the current state of affairs:
“If the starting point is 1900, the average temperature has increased by 1.1 degrees. And the bar of 1.5 degrees could be crossed in 20 years already. In fact, the rate of temperature increase is 0.2 degrees in 10 years. Perevedentsev paid attention to the fact that the pace of temperature growth on the planet is not the same: the increase in Russia is faster than on the whole planet in general, while in Tatarstan it is even higher than in Russia in general. But the greatest attention is paid to the Arctic, it is a crucial region for the climate, the greatest rise in temperature is recorded there.
“Why can we trust modern statistical data is a very important question. Today, climatologists can collect data on the entire planet, which offers the possibility of using an ensemble method. This means that data from 50 sets from different regions of the Earth is collected, and this data is statistically averaged. The method used for the period up to the end of the centenary indicates that the warming process seems to be continuing. What are we waiting for? Global sea levels will rise. The amount of precipitation decreases, the accumulation of salt in the soil increases, dangerous hydrological and atmospheric phenomena become more frequent. Today, the prevailing view is that human activity is the cause of the changes we are seeing anyway,” Professor Perevedentsev concluded.
November was depressive
Speakers noted that meteorological instability was recorded in Tatarstan: a very serious lack of precipitation in summer, highs and lows in temperature. According to them, they would like to understand what to prepare for at least the next winter months, if not the next 50 years. But science can already give a fairly precise answer to this question, in millimeters of precipitation and in degrees.
“The weather this year has been very unstable. It started with an extremely cold February, thanks to which the winter was among the 10 coldest winters in the history of weather observations. Then a marathon of abnormally hot months with a lack of precipitation began. May of this year turned out to be a summer month. Rainfall in July was above average, which did not have an offsetting effect. Excluding the month of November, month after month we fell below 100 mm of precipitation. November provided twice as much, but it was already too late,” Timur Aukhadeyev, a docent from the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Environment at Kazan Federal University, briefly summarized in 2021.
The expert noticed that this year it started snowing in Kazan earlier than usual. This was from November 17 to 19.
“It happened on November 12. But the snow has already disappeared, which is not very good because the winter plants have vernalized. Now we are going through this period. Speaking of the average amount of snow, there must be about 12 cm, but we only have three, the vast western cyclone of the last decade of November and “stole” 12 cm of precipitation,” Aukhadeyev concluded. .
According to him, the maximum height of the snowpack on our territory is generally reached around March 10. But considering the global occurrences, a trend of thicker snowpack year after year can be observed.
“It should be noted that November was depressive both in terms of pressure fluctuations and lack of sunshine. We only had a third of the monthly average,” Aukhadeyev said.
Professor Perevedentsev told people in Tatarstan what to expect from the coming winter months after a hot November.
“As we expected, December will continue the November trend. Specifically, it will be warmer than usual. It’s around -8 degrees. There will be a little more precipitation. We expect January to be within the normal weather range, around -12 degrees. In February, everything is as simple as in December, the parameters are expected to be in the average, about -10 degrees.
At the same time, the expert reminded the audience that the predictions were probably, they can be 70% true.
“As for the next days of December, we expect a warming in Tatarstan caused by a cyclone coming from the Balkans. Its main blow will be in Moscow, and in Moscow Oblast a warm front will affect our territory,” Perevedentsev summed up in the forecast for this winter.