Meteorologists predict winter in Tatarstan — RealnoeVremya.com
Winter in Kazan will be average
Relatively warm October came after cold September in Kazan. The Tatarstan Hydrometeorological Center promised that the air would begin to warm up “much by autumn standards” and even “the Indian summer would begin”. But the summer has ended anyway and the freezing winter is looming on the horizon. Professor of the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Environment of the Institute of Environmental Sciences of Kazan Federal University Yury Perevedentsev told Realnoe Vremya what Kazan citizens should expect from cold months.
“The Russian Hydrometeorological Center has made forecasts for the entire heating season. And its winter period was average for our territory. They only predict December below average, that is, it will be cold here, while the rest, as they say, is by climatic standards, the climatic average,” Perevedentsev said. He added that while the temperature is forecast within the climate average, rainfall will not increase it. That’s probably true because all of these long-term forecasts are 60-70% correct, they’re mostly based on climate anyway, the professor says.
Perevedentsev indicated what temperature the citizens of Kazan can expect according to the long-term indicators recorded by the Kazan University weather station. The professor says that in October the citizens of Kazan can be prepared for a temperature of +4.2 degrees, -2.7 degrees in November, -8.3 degrees in December. -12.2 degrees are to be expected in January, -10.6 in February. While in March it will be warmer, -4.2 degrees. At the same time, he clarified that the temperature in the city center is still a bit higher.
Meanwhile, the Fobos center reported that more precipitation is expected in winter in Russia than usual, nearly a quarter above average in Moscow and nearly twice as high as long-term indicators. term in the lower Volga, near Kolyma and southern Siberia. When asked if the citizens of Kazan should expect rains in October and November and heavy snowfalls in winter, Perevedentsev said that at present these predictions can only be based on climate measures and long-term average indicators:
“The average rainfall level in October can be 47mm, 44mm in November, 38mm in December, 28mm in February, 27mm in March. These are cold months, the temperature and precipitation are distributed in this way, according to long-term climate data. Since the Hydrometeorological Center predicts everything in the average for our region, except for December, December will be colder, we can stick to such expectations, there can be such temperatures. I emphasize that these are average monthly temperatures.
Professor Perevedentsev paid attention to the fact that the coming winter will have both heat waves and cold waves. According to him, climate standards suggest that the stable snowpack appears during the first 20 days of November, around November 21. As he pointed out, the pre-winter period then ends, and winter begins.
“Airflow is the issue, which is the most difficult thing to predict. If our airflow is westerly, that is, the North Atlantic influences us, indeed, we will have warm and snowy weather, moreover, if southern cyclones come here. But our September was mainly under the influence of arctic, cold air, that’s why it was cold here,” said explained Perevedentsev.
You will have to put on warmer clothes in December
As Yury Perevedentsev said, the Russian Hydrometeorological Center is indeed forecasting a cold December. Meteorologists say that in the first month of the civil winter, the temperature should be below average in most parts of the Volga Federal District, in the south of the Urals Federal District and in the regions from the south-west and the center of the Siberian Federal District. The Hydrometeorological Center does not predict any abnormal weather in the Volga region and its regions during the upcoming cold period.
The possible temperature forecast of the Tatarstan Hydrometeorological Center for the heating season 2021/2022 proves this. December is indicated as the only month when the average monthly temperature will be below average, moreover, it is -9.6 degrees.
According to the Tatarstan Hydrometeorological Center, the temperature in the republic from October to March inclusive, with the exception of December, as noted above, will be around average. For October it will be +3.1°С. Starting in November, temperatures will begin to drop below zero. In November it is -3.7 degrees, -13.6 degrees in January, -12.3 degrees in February, -5.7 degrees in March.
The temperature forecast for the heating season has fluctuated around 58-81 percent over the past 10 years, the Tatarstan Hydrometeorological Center said.
How cold weather hit Tatarstan last winter
Last winter, the people of Tatarstan must have been cold. Residents of the republic shared photos of thermometers reading -40 degrees on social media, while meteorologists warned of icy roads and occasional high winds, snowstorms and fog. However, according to the November 2020 and February-March 2021 forecast, the temperature was expected to be above average.
The cold weather prevented public transport from operating. In January, some trams and trolleybuses were late because they were frozen and the wires were cut. On some days, the temperature reached -38.7 degrees in the extreme south-east of the republic.
People also suffered from the cold. First, frostbite. It was reported in January that a one-year-old baby had been severely frozen in the republic. Another minor with a mild case was hospitalized in Alexeyevsk, doctors diagnosed him with a slightly frozen hand. Secondly, the freezing cold influenced utility bills – last winter, residents of Tatarstan had to pay more for heating apartments.
The cold continued until the end of winter. On the night of February 22 in Tatarstan, the temperature fell to 25-30 degrees. In the lower districts, mainly in the south and east of the republic, it reached up to -36°С.